Kari Lake, once heralded as a rising star in the MAGA movement and a favorite of Donald Trump, is now watching her U.S. Senate campaign struggle.
After narrowly losing the Arizona governor’s race to Democrat Katie Hobbs by more than 17,000 votes in 2022, Lake refused to concede, claiming the election was rigged—echoing the same false rhetoric she had used to challenge President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory.
Yet, her embrace of hard-right positions and conspiracy theories has done little to win over Arizona voters, including many within her own party.
Lake’s campaign has leaned heavily into controversial issues that reflect Trump’s base, such as backing Arizona’s archaic 1864 abortion ban, which prohibits nearly all abortions in the state.
She has attacked the LGBTQ community, accusing them of “kicking God out of schools” and claimed that drag queens are corrupting children. On Covid-19, she opposed vaccine and mask mandates, promoting unproven treatments instead.
Lake even called for a return to “God, Guns & Glory” in the public education system. These extreme positions have endeared her to Trump but alienated a significant portion of Arizona’s more moderate Republican voters.
Despite Trump’s continued support and praise, Lake’s political strategy appears to be backfiring. New polling reveals that while Trump remains popular in Arizona, Lake has struggled to win over his supporters.
New polling shows that Ms. Lake, a key Trump backer in the state, has been unable to win over 17 percent of voters who intend to support the former president in November.
A staggering 17% of voters who back Trump in the upcoming presidential election have indicated they will not vote for Lake in her Senate bid.
Instead, many of these voters are planning to split their ticket and vote for her Democratic opponent, Ruben Gallego.
This growing trend of ticket-splitting among moderate and skeptical Republicans poses a major threat to Lake’s campaign.
Arizona is a battleground state where independent and moderate voters often decide elections.
By doubling down on extreme positions, Lake is losing ground with these key voter blocs, particularly in a race where the incumbent, Senator Kyrsten Sinema, has chosen to run as an independent, creating a three-way contest that further complicates her path to victory.
The Democratic candidate, Ruben Gallego, is more than ten points ahead of Ms. Lake in the latest poll, conducted for Fox News.
This significant gap underscores the challenges her campaign faces. While Sinema’s re-election bid as an independent may peel away some centrist votes, Gallego’s lead has held steady as he consolidates Democratic support and attracts moderates disillusioned by Lake’s polarizing rhetoric.
Even within her own party, Lake’s brand of politics is causing unease. Arizona farmer and rancher Winfield Morris, a 62-year-old Trump supporter, exemplifies Republicans’ feelings towards Lake.
“I don’t like Kari Lake and I’m not going to vote for her,” he told AP. “I don’t think she has what it takes.” Morris’ sentiments are emblematic of the growing divide among Republicans in Arizona.
Many are increasingly uncomfortable with Lake’s uncompromising approach, preferring instead a candidate who represents more traditional conservative values rather than the extreme MAGA ideology.
Lake’s campaign is struggling to bridge the gap between Trump loyalists and the broader Republican electorate.
While she had hoped her unwavering support for Trump and his policies would rally the base, it seems to be driving moderates and independents away.
This shift is especially pronounced in Arizona, a state where Republicans have increasingly found success by appealing to centrists and building coalitions across party lines.
What’s clear is that Lake’s Senate dreams are on shaky ground. In a race that requires winning over a broad swath of voters, Lake’s decision to embrace extreme rhetoric and conspiracy theories may have cost her the crucial support she needs.
As Arizona Republicans continue to distance themselves from her brand of politics, Lake is finding it harder to gain the momentum she once enjoyed.
As the election nears, the focus will be on whether Lake can pivot her message to attract more moderate voters or if she will remain steadfast in her MAGA persona.
With her Democratic challenger, Ruben Gallego, leading in the polls and Arizona Republicans showing signs of discontent, Lake’s Senate run may be in serious jeopardy.
Despite Trump’s backing, her cartoonish posturing and divisive stances could ultimately lead to her downfall in what was once considered a promising campaign.
